One Possible Outcome of the Korea Talks



I have a new prediction.

I think that Kim will agree to fully denuclearize in exchange for America's complete military withdrawal from South Korea. He'll agree to periodic inspections by the UN Atomic Energy Comission in exchange for a complete end to sanctions. He'll add in programs to allow families increased ability to visit one another across borders and favorable trade opportunities between North Korea, South Korea, and China.

Trump and Bolton and company will refuse to accept any deal in which the US leaves South Korea.  South Korea, however, will see a deal too good to pass up.  South Korea will tell the US that if the US doesn't agree to the deal, South Korea is going to be forced to publicly break from the US and eject them.

The US will come to some compromise, perhaps withdraw all but 5,000 troops over 10 months, while insisting that it was their complete decision to do so.  Even so, Trump and co. will refuse to relax sanctions on North Korea and possibly punish South Korea with punitive tariffs. The US will refuse to sign a peace treaty officially ending the war while still trying to claim some victory for Kim denuclearizing.

China, Russia, and others will eagerly welcome North Korea's new economic openness, followed by Europe as the rest of the world ignores America's increasingly ridiculous saber-rattling and calls for new sanctions. South Korea, North Korea, and China sign a historic agreement without the US.

The next Democratic president after Trump will negotiate a formal end to the war and the sanctions in exchange for some trivial social agreement and begin trying to restore our broken relationship with a South Korea much more closely aligned with China.  This will bring a formal end to the Korean war..

I know it's optimistic, but I think this makes as much sense as anything else.